Election Campaigns to Highlight Polarizing Narrative in International Education Sector

Trump Administration Policies and Weakening Australian Economy Could Benefit Education Sector

According to analyst Keri Ramirez, the number of overseas students enrolling in Australian universities is expected to decrease by up to 10% in 2025. However, he noted that the policy instability affecting international education has likely ended. Ramirez predicted that 2025 would be a "correction year" and that December’s ministerial direction 111 (MD111) would be the last significant rule change for some time, as further modifications are not anticipated to be in policymakers' interests.

Ministerial Direction 111 (MD111) sets the priority order for processing offshore student visa applications in Australia, aiming to align with national interests and address application surges and integrity concerns. During a Studymove webinar, Ramirez stated that the rules in MD111 would not see major changes in the first half of the year, despite expected discussions. He noted that policy changes since December 2023 had controlled student number growth, with temporary student figures in Australia up only 2% from September 2023 and 6% above 2019 levels.

Furthermore, Ramirez observed that foreign student commencements were up 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels but only 2% higher than in 2023. He highlighted the "lagging effect" of policy changes from December 2023 and early 2024, which became apparent about six months later. He anticipated a similar delay with MD111, as many students had already secured visas when the new directive was issued. Ramirez predicted that the effects of MD111 would be seen in the second semester, with visa delays worse than those under MD107, which had increased processing times from 18 to 41 days.

Institutions below 80% thresholds could expect visas for three-quarters of their students to be processed within two to three weeks. However, those at or above these thresholds could face delays of up to 95 to 100 days, resulting in a 5 to 10% decrease in new overseas higher education students, with the longest delays at universities over the 80% mark. As a result, universities over 80% thresholds would focus on maximizing revenue and securing current applicants, with fees rising over the average annual 5%. They would use "early conversion scholarships" to prompt students to confirm early. Meanwhile, other universities would aim to increase student numbers by minimizing fee hikes and using scholarships to re-engage markets affected by MD107.

Ramirez mentioned that international education operators could face a polarizing narrative during a challenging federal election campaign. However, he believes the new policy framework will likely remain unchanged for a few years, regardless of the election outcome. Additionally, he noted that Trump administration policies and a weakening Australian economy could benefit the sector. The new policy framework, despite potential challenges, is expected to remain stable and positively impact the international education sector for the next few years.

Editor's Note:

Analyst Keri Ramirez provides key insights into the future of international student enrollments in Australian universities. He predicts a temporary decline in enrollments due to recent policy changes but foresees stability in the coming years. Recent adjustments have effectively controlled the growth of overseas student enrollments, resulting in only modest increases in student numbers. However, new visa processing rules under MD111 are expected to cause longer delays, especially for institutions above their 80% thresholds. These delays could lead to a 5 to 10% decrease in new overseas enrollments. Despite this, universities are likely to adapt by securing current applicants and using scholarships to mitigate the impacts. The policy framework is expected to remain stable for a few years, regardless of election outcomes.

Skoobuzz believes that despite potential challenges, including visa delays and election-related discussions, the sector is poised for a stable period with positive long-term prospects.